The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

Authors

  • Yeli Sarvina Natural Resource and Environmental Management Science Graduate School, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia and Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development, Natural Resource. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9185-2596
  • Tania June Agrometeorology division Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2068-3219
  • Surjono Hadi Sutjahjo Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0103-6139
  • Rita Nurmalina Department Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Management, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8002-9975
  • Elza Surmaini Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development, Bogor, Indonesia. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2540-6504

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25186/.v16i.1917

Abstract

Coffee is an annual crop sensitive to climate variability. Most Indonesian coffee is cultivated on marginal lands that are vulnerable to environmental changes, including climate. Indonesia's climate variability is influenced by several factors, including the monsoon, local aspects, and global climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is crucial to identify the impacts of climate variability on both the production and the economy to develop adaptative measures. This study aims to determine the effects of global climate variability, namely ENSO and IOD, on coffee production in several Indonesian production centers. It uses annual coffee production data in the five major production centers in Indonesia. The ENSO indicators used in this study were the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region and the IOD indicator in the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The production anomaly analysis approach in neutral years and the extreme ENSO and IOD phases were applied in this study. The results showed that the effects of ENSO and IOD were different in each region. The highest decline in production occurred in the La-Nina year in almost all production centers. The decline in output in the La-Nina year ranged from 6 to 22%. Meanwhile, the IOD that had a decreasing effect on production was positive IOD with a decrease ranging from 1 to 15%.

Key words: ENSO; IOD; Economy; Climate change.

References

ALDRIAN, E. Sistem peringatan dini menghadapi iklim ekstrem. Jurnal Sumberdaya Lahan, 10(2):79-90, 2016.

ALDRIAN, E.; SUSANTO, D. R. Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology, 23(12):1435-1452, 2003.

ARRIGO, R. D.; WILSON, R. El nino and indian ocean influences on indonesian drought: Implication for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity. International Journal of Climatology, 28(5):611-616, 2008.

AVELINO, J. et al. The coffee rust crises in Colombia and Central America (2008-2013): Impacts, plausible causes and proposed solutions. Food Security, 7:303-321, 2015.

BACON, C. M. et al. Vulnerability to cumulative hazards: Coping with the coffee leaf rust outbreak, drought, and food insecurity in Nicaragua. World Development, 93:136-152, 2017.

BASTIANIN, A.; LANZA, A.; MANERA, M. Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian coffee market. Agricultural Economics, 49(5):623-633, 2018.

BOER, R.; SURMAINI, E. Economic benefits of ENSO information in crop management decisions: Case study of rice farming in West Java, Indonesia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139:1435-1446, 2019.

BRUNSELL, N. A.; PONTES, P. P. B.; LAMPERI, R. A. C. Remotely sensed phenology of coffee and its relationship to yield remotely sensed phenology of coffee and its relationship to yield. GIScience & Remote Sensing, 46(3):289-304, 2009.

CAMARGO, A. P. de.; CAMARGO, M. B. P. de. Definition and outline for the phenological phases of arabic coffee under Brazilian tropical conditions. Bragantia, 60(1):65-68, 2001.

CAMARGO, M. B. P. The impact of climate variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil. Bragantia, 69(1):239-247, 2010.

CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS. Indonesian Coffee Statistics. Jakarta. 2019. Available in: < https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2020/12/02/de27ead7c1c7e29fd0aa950d/statistik-kopi-indonesia-2019.html>. Acces in: August, 09, 2021.

CHENGAPPA, P. G.; DEVIKA, C. M. Climate variability concerns for the future of coffee in India: an exploratory study. International Journal of Environmental, agriculture and Biotechnology, 1(4):819-826, 2017.

CIRINO, P. H. et al. Assessing the impacts of ENSO-related weather effects on the Brazilian agriculture. Procedia Economics and Finance, 24:146-155, 2015.

COBON, D. H. et al. Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea. Agricultural Systems, 145:150-164, 2016.

COFFEE & CLIMATE (C&C). Climate change adaptation in coffee production. Germany: coffee & climate. 2015. 184p.

COUTO JÚNIOR, A. F. et al. Phenological characterization of coffee crop (Coffea arabica L.) from MODIS time series. Revista Brasileira de Geofisica, 31(4):569-578, 2013.

CRAPARO, A. C. W. et al. Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: Global implications. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 207:1-10, 2015.

DE CAMARGO, Â. P.; DE CAMARGO, M. B. P. Definição e esquematização das fases fenológicas do cafeeiro arábica nas condições tropicais do Brasil. Bragantia, 60(1):65-68, 2001.

DIRECTORATE OF PLANTATION. Tree Crop Estate Statistics of Indonesia. Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan - Kementerian Pertanian, 2019. 96p

DULA, T. Climate variability and determinants of its adaptation strategies: The case of coffee (coffea arabica) producer farmers at abeshege woreda, Ethiopia. Agricultural Research & Technology, 7(3): 556028, 2018.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED - FAOSTAT. Database. 2019. Availabe in: <http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E>. Acces in: August, 09, 2021.

GUNATHILAKA, R. P. D. et al. Adaptation to climate change in perennial cropping systems: Options, barriers and policy implications. Environmental Science & Policy, 82:108-116, 2018.

HAMEED, A.; HUSSAIN, S. A.; SULERI, H. A. R. “Coffee Bean-Related” agroecological factors affecting the coffee. In: MERILLON, J. M.; RAMAWAT, K. (eds). Co-Evolution of secondary metabolites. Reference Series in Phytochemistry: Cham: Springer Nature, p. 1-67, 2018.

HEINO, M. et al. A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems. Earth System Dynamics, 11:113-128, 2019.

HENDRAWAN, I. G. et al. The interanual rainfall variability in Indonesia corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 38(7):57-66, 2019.

HIDAYAT, R.; ANDO, K. Rainfall variability over Indonesia and its relation to ENSO/IOD: Estimated using Jra-25/Jcdas. Agromet, 28(1):1-8, 2018.

JAYAKUMAR, M.; RAJAVEL, M.; SURENDRAN, U. Impact of climate variability on coffee yield in India with a micro-level case study using long-term coffee yield data of humid tropical Kerala. Climatic Change, 145:335:349, 2017.

MULYANA, E. Pengaruh dipole mode terhadap curah hujan di Indonesia. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 3(1):39-43, 2002.

NURUTAMI, M. N.; HIDAYAT, R. Influence of IOD dan ENSO to Indonesian rainfall variability: Role of atmosphere-ocean interaction in the Indo-Pacific sector. Procedia Environmetal Science, 33:196-203, 2016.

NOAA. Dipole mode index (DMI). 2019a. Availavbe in: <https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php>. Acces in: August, 09, 2021.

NOAA. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 2019b. Availabe in: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php. Acces in: August, 09, 2021.

PHAM, Y.; REARDON-SMITH, K.; COKFIELD, G. The impact of climate change and variability on the coffee production: A systematic review. Climatic Change, 156:609-630, 2019.

RAMIREZ-RODRIGUES, M. A. et al. Climate risk management tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay. Climate Risk Management, 3:24-38, 2014.

SAJI, N. H. et al. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian ocean. Nature, 401:360-363, 1999.

SAJI, N. H.; YAMAGATA, T. Possible impac ts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate. Climate Research, 25(2):151-169, 2003.

SARVINA, Y. et al. Strategy for increasing coffee productivity and adaptation on climate change and climate variability through cultivation calendar. Journal sumber daya lahan, 14(2):65-78, 2020.

SARVINA, Y.; SARI, K. Dampak ENSO terhadap produksi dan puncak panen durian di indonesia (enso impacts on production and peak harvest season of durian in Indonesia). Jurnal Tanah Dan Iklim, 41(2):149-158, 2018.

SILVA, K. A. et al. Influence of El Niño and La Niña on coffee yield in the main coffee-producing regions of Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139:(3-4): 1019-1029, 2020.

TACK, J.; UBILAVA, D. The effect of El niño Southern Oscillation on US Corn production and downside risk. Climatic Change, 121(4):689-700, 2013.

TAVARES, S. et al. Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil. Regional Environmental Change, 18:873-883, 2017.

TUCKER, C.; EAKIN, H.; CASTELLANOS, E. J. Perceptions of risk and adaptation: Coffee producers, market shocks, and extreme weather in Central America and Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 20:23-32, 2010.

WAHYUDI, T.; JATI, M. Challenges of sustainable coffee certification in Indonesia. p. 1-14, 2012. Available in: <http://www.ico.org/event_pdfs/seminar-certification/certification-iccri-paper.pdf >. Acces in: August, 09, 2021.

ZULLO, J. et al. Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world. Climatic Change, 109:535-548, 2011.

Downloads

Published

2021-09-09

How to Cite

SARVINA, Y.; JUNE, T.; SUTJAHJO, S. H. .; NURMALINA, R. .; SURMAINI, E. The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers. Coffee Science - ISSN 1984-3909, [S. l.], v. 16, p. e161917, 2021. DOI: 10.25186/.v16i.1917. Disponível em: http://www.coffeescience.ufla.br/index.php/Coffeescience/article/view/1917. Acesso em: 24 jun. 2022.